鮑威爾意在強(qiáng)調(diào)，首先，美聯(lián)儲官員作出任何降息決策都會感覺當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢和數(shù)據(jù)而定，而目前通脹和就業(yè)的兩大使命之間風(fēng)險達(dá)到均衡，所以是時候開啟降息以提振勞動力市場了。

第二，美聯(lián)儲將逐次會議做出決策，不會受到市場對降息預(yù)期定價的影響，也不會考慮任何政治因素和議題，而是用「對當(dāng)時合適的速度或快或慢地采取行動」。

第三，鮑威爾不認(rèn)為大幅降息說明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退臨近，也不說明就業(yè)市場瀕臨崩潰的邊緣，降息更多是一種預(yù)防性質(zhì)的行動，目的是保持住經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動力市場「穩(wěn)健」的現(xiàn)狀。

第四，他承認(rèn)非農(nóng)就業(yè)可能下修，但依舊是個值得參考的重要數(shù)據(jù)點，其他美聯(lián)儲關(guān)注的勞動力數(shù)據(jù)還包括：失業(yè)率、就業(yè)率、工資增長、職位空缺與失業(yè)人數(shù)的比值、辭職率等多項指標(biāo)：

重點是，「問題不在于具體數(shù)字的水平幾何」，而是在過去幾個月情況發(fā)生了變化，美國通脹的上行風(fēng)險確實在下降，就業(yè)的下行風(fēng)險增加，所以現(xiàn)在美聯(lián)儲出手調(diào)整政策立場支持就業(yè)。

以下為華爾街見聞?wù)淼孽U威爾 9 月 FOMC 大幅降息后記者會問答環(huán)節(jié)全記錄：

問題 1：Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market, and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call?

第三季度美國 GDP 預(yù)計強(qiáng)勁增長 3%，那么是什么變化讓美聯(lián)儲決定降息 50 個基點？這是否可能表明美聯(lián)儲更擔(dān)心勞動力市場，未來也會繼續(xù)每次降息 50 個基點？我們應(yīng)該根據(jù)什么做出這一判斷？

回答 1：

Let me jump in. So since the last meeting, we have had a lot of data come in. We’ve had the two employment reports July and August. We’ve also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report, which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we’re getting may be artificially high and will be revised down. You know that we’ve also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book, so we took all of those, and we went into blackout, and we thought about what to do, and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s how we made our decision. So that’s one question.

自上次會議以來，我們收到了很多數(shù)據(jù)，有 7 月和 8 月的兩份非農(nóng)就業(yè)報告，還有兩份通脹報告，其中一份是在美聯(lián)儲官員靜默期內(nèi)發(fā)布的。還有 QCW 報告表明我們非農(nóng)新增就業(yè)數(shù)可能被人為抬高，將會被下調(diào)。我們也看到了像美聯(lián)儲褐皮書這樣的軼事數(shù)據(jù)，所以我們收集了所有這些數(shù)據(jù)，然后進(jìn)入公開發(fā)言的靜默期，我們思考該怎么做，并明確了這對經(jīng)濟(jì)、對我們服務(wù)的美國人民??來說是正確的，這就是我們做出決定的方式。

So a couple things, a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said, which was that we’re going to be making decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP, you’ll see that it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance, away from where we had a year ago, when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that’s more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There’s nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done. This this process evolves over time.

（對于未來利率路徑的判斷），一個好的起點是看經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測摘要 SEP。首先，我們將根據(jù)收到的數(shù)據(jù)、不斷變化的前景和風(fēng)險平衡，在逐次會議上做出決定。看看 SEP 你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，這是一個重新校準(zhǔn)我們政策立場的過程，遠(yuǎn)離一年前通脹高 失業(yè)率低的立場，轉(zhuǎn)向一個更適合當(dāng)前情況和我們預(yù)期的立場。這個過程將隨著時間的推移而發(fā)生。SEP 中沒有任何內(nèi)容表明委員會急于完成（降息）這項工作，這個過程是隨著時間的推移而發(fā)展的。

Of course, that’s a projection. That’s a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker, if that’s appropriate, we can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate. But that’s what we’re contemplating. Again, I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where, what the committee is thinking today, but the individual members, rather, of the committee, are thinking today, assuming that their particular forecasts take, you know, are realized.

當(dāng)然，這只是一個預(yù)測。這是一個基線預(yù)測。正如我在發(fā)言中提到的，我們實際做的事情將取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展方式。如果合適，我們可以加快（降息）速度，如果合適，我們可以放慢速度。如果合適，我們可以暫停。但這就是我們正在考慮的。再次，我想指出，SEP 只是對委員會今天的想法的評估，而且是委員會的各位成員今天的想法，假設(shè)他們特定的預(yù)測得以實現(xiàn)。

問題 2: The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year. So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period? Does that threaten the weakening of the job market you said you’d like to avoid, or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher?

預(yù)測顯示，美聯(lián)儲官員預(yù)計到明年年底聯(lián)邦基金利率仍將高于他們對長期中性利率的估計。那么這是否意味著您認(rèn)為利率在整個時期內(nèi)都是有限制性的？這是否威脅到您所說希望避免的就業(yè)市場疲軟，是否也意味著人們可能認(rèn)為短期中性利率會略高一些？

回答 2：:

I would really characterize it as this. I think people write down their estimate. Individuals do. I think every single person on the committee, if you ask them, what’s your level of certainty around that, and they would say there’s a wide range where that could fall. So I think we don’t know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time. But realistically, we know it by its works. So that leaves us in a place where we’ll be, where we expect, in the base case, to be continuing to remove restriction, and we’ll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that, and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that we’re asking at every meeting, which is, is our policy stance the appropriate one?

我真的會這樣描述它。這是委員會每個官員個人的預(yù)估值，如果你問他們對此的確定程度如何，他們會說，這個范圍可能很大。所以我認(rèn)為我們不知道是否有基于模型的方法和基于經(jīng)驗的方法可以估計任何給定時間的中性利率。但實際上，我們通過它的工作原理來了解它。因此，在基本場景下，我們預(yù)計會繼續(xù)放松貨幣政策，我們將關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)對此的反應(yīng)，這將指導(dǎo)我們思考在每次會議上提出的問題，即我們的政策立場是否合適？

We know, if you go back, we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%. Today, unemployment is up to 4.2%, inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%, so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation and on employment moving to a more sustainable level. So the balance of risks are now even, and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned, the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral, and we’ll move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate in real time, what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case.

我們知道，如果回顧一下，我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)在 2023 年 7 月采取的政策立場是在失業(yè)率為 3.5% 和通脹率為 4.2% 時采取的。如今，失業(yè)率已升至 4.2%，通脹率降至更接近 2%，因此我們知道，鑒于通脹和就業(yè)向更可持續(xù)水平邁進(jìn)的進(jìn)展，現(xiàn)在是時候重新調(diào)整我們的政策，使其更合適。因此，風(fēng)險平衡現(xiàn)在已均衡，這是我提到的那個過程的開始，其方向是朝著中立的方向發(fā)展，我們將根據(jù)我們認(rèn)為對當(dāng)時合適的速度或快或慢地采取行動，點陣圖是聯(lián)儲官員對基本場景的個人估計值。

問題 3：How close was this in terms of the decision, you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50, or was this a very close decision?

這是自 2005 年以來第一次有聯(lián)儲理事提出異議，降息 50 個基點的共識意見有多少？

回答 3：

I think we had a good discussion. You know, if you go back, I talked about this at Jackson Hole, but I didn’t address the question of the size of the cut. And I think we left it open going into blackout. And so there was a lot of discussion back and forth. Good diversity of division. Excellent discussion today. I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on. So I would add, though, look at the SEP all 19 of the participants wrote down multiple cuts this year, all 19. That’s a big change from June, right? 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts, and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts. So, you know, there is a dissent, and there’s a range of views, but there’s actually a lot of common ground as well.

我認(rèn)為我們進(jìn)行了很好的討論。我在杰克遜霍爾談到了這個問題，但我沒有回答降息幅度的問題。我認(rèn)為我們在靜默期之前沒有解決這個問題。因此，我們進(jìn)行了大量的討論。觀點有多樣性很好。今天的討論非常精彩。我認(rèn)為委員會投票通過的決定也得到了廣泛的支持。我想補(bǔ)充一點，看看 SEP，所有 19 名參與者支持今年多次降息，這與 6 月份相比有很大變化，19 人中有 17 人支持今年降息 3 次或更多，有 10 人支持 4 次以上的降息。所以，存在不同意見，也有各種觀點，但實際上也有很多共同點。

問題 4： on the pacing here, would you expect this to be running every other meeting?

按照這樣的節(jié)奏，您是否認(rèn)為每隔一次會議都會進(jìn)行這樣（大幅降息）的討論？

回答 4：Once we get into next year, we’re going to take it meeting by meeting, as I mentioned, we would. There’s no sense that the committee feels it’s in a rush to do this. We made a good, strong start to this. And that’s really, frankly, a sign of our confidence, confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis. That gives us the ability we can, you know, make a good, strong start. But, and I’m very pleased that we did to me the logic of this, both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint, was clear, but I think we’re going to go carefully meeting by meeting and make our decisions as we go.

一旦進(jìn)入明年，我們將逐次會議討論此事，正如我之前提到的那樣。委員會不會急于這樣做（降降息）。我們已經(jīng)取得了良好的開端。坦率地說，這確實表明了我們的信心，相信通脹率將以可持續(xù)的方式下降到 2%。這讓我們有能力取得良好的開端。但是，我很高興我們做到了，無論是從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度還是從風(fēng)險管理角度來看，這其中的邏輯都很明確，但我認(rèn)為我們將在每次會議上都謹(jǐn)慎行事，并隨著時間推進(jìn)做出決定。

問題 5：Your colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4% and staying there, obviously, historically, when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time, it doesn’t typically just stop. It continues increasing. And so I wonder if you can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing sort of, what’s the mechanism there, and what do you see as the risks?

您的同事在今天的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測中預(yù)測失業(yè)率將攀升至 4.4% 并保持在這個水平，顯然，從歷史上看，當(dāng)失業(yè)率在相對較短的時間內(nèi)攀升到這個水平時，它通常不會停止，而是會繼續(xù)上升。所以為什么您認(rèn)為勞動力市場會趨于穩(wěn)定，其中的機(jī)制是什么，您認(rèn)為存在哪些風(fēng)險？

回答 5：

So again, the labor market is actually in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy. The US economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down. The labor market is in a strong pace. We want to keep it there that’s what we’re doing.

所以，勞動力市場實際上處于穩(wěn)健狀態(tài)，我們今天采取政策舉措的目的是保持這種狀態(tài)。你可以說整個經(jīng)濟(jì)都是如此。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好。它正以穩(wěn)健的速度增，通脹正在下降，勞動力市場發(fā)展強(qiáng)勁。我們希望保持這種狀態(tài)，這就是我們正在做的事情。

問題 6：「新美聯(lián)儲通訊社」Nick Timiraos 的提問，鑒于近期就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的大幅修正，今天的行動是否構(gòu)成追趕，或者這次比典型降息幅度更大的降息是政策利率名義水平上升的結(jié)果，因此可以預(yù)期加速降息的節(jié)奏將繼續(xù)下去？

回答 6：

multiple questions in every list. So I would say we don’t think we’re behind. We do not think we’re. We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. So it’s a strong move.

我們不認(rèn)為我們落后（于曲線）了。我們認(rèn)為這是及時的（降息），但我認(rèn)為你可以把這看作是我們承諾不落后（于曲線）的標(biāo)志。所以這是一個強(qiáng)有力的舉措。

I think it’s about we come into this with a policy position that was put in place. As you know, I mentioned in July of 2023 which was a time of high inflation and very low unemployment, we’ve been very patient about reducing the policy rate. We’ve waited. Other central banks around the world have cut many of them several times. We’ve waited, and I think that that patience has really paid dividends in the form of our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably under 2% so I think that is what enables us to take this strong move today.

我認(rèn)為，關(guān)鍵在于我們以既定的政策立場來應(yīng)對這一問題。如你所知，我提到，2023 年 7 月是高通脹和低失業(yè)率時期，我們一直非常耐心地等待降低政策利率的時機(jī)。我們一直在等待。世界各地的其他央行已經(jīng)多次降息，但美聯(lián)儲一直在等待，我認(rèn)為這種耐心確實帶來了回報，我們有信心通脹率將持續(xù)低于 2%，所以我認(rèn)為這就是我們今天能夠采取這一有力舉措的原因。

I do not think that anyone should look at this and say, Oh, this is the new pace. You know, you have to think about it in terms of the base case. Of course, what happens will happen. So in the base case, what you see is, look at the SEP you see cuts moving along. The sense of this is we’re recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level, and we’re moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy. And the base case, the economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower, but that’s what the base case says.

我認(rèn)為，任何人都不應(yīng)該看到這一點就說，哦，（降息 50 個基點）這是新的節(jié)奏。你知道，你必須從基本場景的角度來考慮。當(dāng)然，該發(fā)生的事總會發(fā)生。所以在基本情況下，你看到的是，看看 SEP，你會看到降息在進(jìn)行。這意味著我們正在隨著時間的推移將政策重新調(diào)整到更中性的水平，我們正在以我們認(rèn)為適合經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的步伐前進(jìn)。在基本場景下，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的方式可能會導(dǎo)致我們走得更快或更慢，但這就是基本場景所說的。

問題 7： If I could follow up on the balance sheet in 2019 when you did the mid cycle adjustment, you ceased the balance sheet runoff with a larger cut. Today, is there any should there be any signal inferred about how the committee would approach end state on the balance sheet policy?

有關(guān) 2019 年的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，當(dāng)時您進(jìn)行了中期周期調(diào)整，停止了資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表縮減，并進(jìn)行了更大的降息。今天，是否有任何信號可以推斷委員會將如何處理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表政策的最終狀態(tài)？

回答 7：

So in the current situation, reserves have really been stable. They haven’t come down. So reserves are still abundant and expected to remain so for some time. As you know, the shrinkage in our balance sheet has really come out of the overnight. RFP, so I think what that tells you is we’re not thinking about stopping runoff because of this at all. We know that these two things can happen side by side, in a sense, they’re both a form of normalization. And so for a time, you can have the balance sheet shrink, you would also be cutting rates.

因此，在當(dāng)前情況下，銀行儲備金確實很穩(wěn)定。它們沒有下降。因此儲備金仍然充足，預(yù)計還會持續(xù)一段時間。如您所知，我們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的縮減確實是一夜之間發(fā)生的。我們根本沒有考慮會停止縮表。我們知道這兩件事（降息 縮表）可以同時發(fā)生，從某種意義上說，它們都是一種正?；问?。因此，在一段時間內(nèi)，您可以縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，同時還可以降低利率。

問題 8： just following up on rising unemployment, is it your view that this is just a function of a normalizing labor market? amid improved supply, or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning, perhaps is taking place here given that other metrics of labor demand have softened. is do you not? Why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted?

跟進(jìn)失業(yè)率上升的問題，您是否認(rèn)為這只是勞動力市場正?；慕Y(jié)果？供應(yīng)增加，還是有什么跡象表明，鑒于勞動力需求的其他指標(biāo)已經(jīng)減弱，也許正在發(fā)生更令人擔(dān)憂的事情？您不這么認(rèn)為嗎？如果利率政策仍然具有限制性，為什么我們不應(yīng)該預(yù)期勞動力市場狀況會進(jìn)一步惡化？

回答 8：

So I think what we’re seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure, as I talked about in Jackson Hole and but they’re still at a level. The level of those conditions is actually pretty close to what I would call maximum employment, you know. So you’re close to mandate, maybe at mandate on that. So what’s driving it? Clearly, payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months, and this bears watching, meant by many other measures, the labor market has returned to or below 2019 levels, which was a very good, strong labor market, but this is more sort of 2018、2017. So the labor market bears close watching, and we’ll be giving it that but ultimately, we think, we believe, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market in the meantime, if you look at the growth and economic activity data, retail sales data that we just got, second quarter GDP, all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, So that should also support the labor market over time.

很明顯，無論以何種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，勞動力市場狀況都已經(jīng)降溫，就像我在杰克遜霍爾會議上談到的那樣，但它們?nèi)匀惶幱谝欢ㄋ健＿@些條件的水平實際上非常接近我所說的充分就業(yè)。所以接近美聯(lián)儲的法定使命，也許已經(jīng)達(dá)到法定使命了。那么是什么推動了它呢？顯然，就業(yè)崗位創(chuàng)造在過去幾個月有所下降，這值得關(guān)注，從許多其他指標(biāo)來看，勞動力市場已經(jīng)回到或低于 2019 年的水平，當(dāng)時是一個非常好、強(qiáng)勁的勞動力市場，但現(xiàn)在更像是 2018 年、2017 年的情況。因此，勞動力市場需要密切關(guān)注，我們也會給予關(guān)注，但最終，我們相信，通過適當(dāng)調(diào)整政策，我們可以繼續(xù)看到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，這將支持勞動力市場，與此同時，如果你看看增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動數(shù)據(jù)、我們剛剛得到的零售額數(shù)據(jù)、第二季度的 GDP，所有這些都表明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在穩(wěn)步增長，因此這也應(yīng)該會隨著時間的推移支持勞動力市場。

So, but again we’re watching, and just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs. If that were to happen, wouldn’t the committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession?

追問：所以，我們再次關(guān)注，并且正值裁員人數(shù)開始上升之際。如果發(fā)生這種情況，委員會在避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退方面是否已經(jīng)太遲了？

So we’re, that’s, you know, our plan, of course, has been to begin to recalibrate, and we’re not seeing rising claims, we’re not seeing rising layoffs, we’re not seeing that, and we’re not hearing that from companies that that’s something that’s getting ready to happen. So we’re not waiting for that because, you know, there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see the White House. There’s some more on that. So that’s the situation we’re in. We have, in fact, begun the cutting cycle now, and we’ll be watching, and that will be one of the factors that we consider. Of course, we’re going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions, meeting by meeting.

我們的計劃當(dāng)然是開始重新調(diào)整政策，我們沒有看到失業(yè)救濟(jì)申請數(shù)量上升，也沒有看到裁員人數(shù)上升，也沒有聽到公司說這些事情即將發(fā)生。所以我們不會等待，因為，有人認(rèn)為，支持勞動力市場的最佳時機(jī)是當(dāng)它強(qiáng)勁時。關(guān)于這一點，還有更多內(nèi)容。這就是我們所處的情況。事實上，我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始了降息周期，我們會密切關(guān)注（勞動力市場降溫），這將是我們考慮的因素之一。當(dāng)然，在每次會議上，我們都會查看所有數(shù)據(jù)，然后做出這些決定。

問題 9：what would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market you’re pricing in, basically, by the end of next year, 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher unemployment Rate. Would you be moving to a more preemptive monetary policy style, rather than, as you did with inflation, waiting until the data gave you a signal

什么會對您和委員會構(gòu)成「勞動力市場的惡化」？您認(rèn)為，到明年底，降息 200 個基點只是為了維持較高的失業(yè)率。您會采取更具先發(fā)制人的貨幣政策風(fēng)格嗎？而不是像您在通脹問題上所做的那樣，等到數(shù)據(jù)給您一個信號再行動。

回答 9：

we’re going to be watching all of the data, right? So if, as I mentioned in my remarks, if the labor market were to slow unexpectedly, then we have the ability to react to that by cutting faster. We’re also going to be looking at our other mandate. Though we have greater confidence now that inflation is moving down to 2% but at the same time, our plan is that we will be at 2% over time. So and policy we think is still restrictive, so that should still be happening.

我們會關(guān)注所有數(shù)據(jù)，因此，如果勞動力市場意外放緩，我們有能力通過加快降息來應(yīng)對。我們還將關(guān)注另一個通脹的使命。雖然我們現(xiàn)在更有信心通脹率正降到 2%，但與此同時，我們的計劃是隨著時間的推移通脹率將達(dá)到 2%。因此，我們認(rèn)為政策仍然具有限制性，因此應(yīng)該仍會如此。

I’m just curious as to how sensitive you’ll be to the labor market, since you forecast we are going to see higher unemployment, and it is going to take a significant amount of monetary easing to just maintain it.

追問：我只是好奇您對勞動力市場的敏感度如何，因為您預(yù)測我們將會看到更高的失業(yè)率，而且需要大量的貨幣寬松政策才能維持這種狀態(tài)。

So you know what I would say is we don’t think we need to see further losing in labor market conditions to get inflation down to 2% but we have a dual mandate. And I think you can take this, this whole action as takes take a step back. What have we been trying to achieve? We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you can take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal.

我想說的是，我們認(rèn)為我們不需要看到勞動力市場狀況進(jìn)一步惡化來把通脹率降至 2%，但我們有雙重使命。我認(rèn)為你可以把這整個行動看作是退一步思考。我們一直在努力實現(xiàn)什么目標(biāo)？我們正努力實現(xiàn)一種局面，即恢復(fù)價格穩(wěn)定，而不會出現(xiàn)有時伴隨通貨緊縮而來的那種痛苦的失業(yè)率上升。這就是我們正在努力做的事情，我認(rèn)為你可以把今天的行動看作是我們實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的堅定承諾的標(biāo)志。

問題 10：You’re describing this view that you don’t think you’re behind when it comes to the job market. Can you walk us through the specific data points that you found to be most helpful in the discussions at this meeting? You mentioned a couple, but would you be able to walk us through what that dashboard told you as far as what you know about the job market now?

您描述了這種觀點，即美聯(lián)儲認(rèn)為自己在就業(yè)市場方面并不落后。能向我們介紹一下您認(rèn)為在本次會議討論中最有幫助的具體數(shù)據(jù)點嗎？您提到了幾個，當(dāng)前就業(yè)市場還有哪些信息去關(guān)注？

回答 10：

Sure. So start with unemployment, which is the single most important one. Probably you’re at 4.2% that’s, you know, I know that’s higher than we were. We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even below mid threes last year. But if you look back over the sweep of the years, that’s a low, that’s a very healthy unemployment rate. And anything in the low fours is, A, really, is a good labor market. So that’s one thing. Participation is at high levels, it’s, you know, we’ve had, we’re right adjusted for demographics, for aging, participation, said, at pretty high levels, that’s a good thing. Wages are still a bit above what would be their wage increases. Rather, are still just a bit above where they would be over the very longer term to be consistent with 2% inflation, but they’re very much coming down to what that sustainable level is. So we feel good about that. Vacancies over per unemployed is back to what is still a very strong level. It’s not as high as it was. That number reached two to one, two vacancies for every unemployed person as measured, it’s now around one, but that’s still, that’s still a very good number. I would say quits have come back down to normal levels. I mean, that could go on and on there.

首先是失業(yè)率，這是最重要的一個因素。失業(yè)率 4.2% 比去年要高，過去失業(yè)率在 3% 的中段或更低，如果回顧這些年，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)這是一個很低、非常健康的失業(yè)率。任何低于 4% 的失業(yè)率都表明勞動力市場狀況良好。這是一方面。就業(yè)參與率處于高水平，我們已經(jīng)根據(jù)人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)、老齡化等因素進(jìn)行了調(diào)整，就業(yè)參與率處于相當(dāng)高的水平，這是件好事。工資仍略高于應(yīng)有的工資增長水平，更確切地說，仍略高于與 2% 通脹率保持一致的長期工資增長水平，但它們正在逐漸降至可持續(xù)水平。所以我們對此感到滿意。每名失業(yè)人員對應(yīng)的空缺職位數(shù)下降，但仍是非常強(qiáng)勁的水平，沒有以前那么高了，以前達(dá)到二比一，即每名失業(yè)者對應(yīng)兩個職位空缺，現(xiàn)在大約是一比一，這仍是一個非常好的數(shù)字。辭職率已經(jīng)回落到正常水平，這種情況可能會一直持續(xù)下去。

There are many, many employment indicators. What do they say? They say this is still a solid labor market. The question isn’t the level. The question is that there has been change over, particularly over the last few months, and you know, so what we say is, as the upside risk to inflation have really come down, the downside risk to employment have increased , and because we have been patient and held our fire on cutting wall inflate While inflation has come down. I think we’re now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals.

就業(yè)指標(biāo)有很多。它們怎么說呢？它們說這仍然是一個穩(wěn)固的勞動力市場。問題不在于水平。問題在于，特別是在過去幾個月里，情況發(fā)生了變化，所以我們說，隨著通脹的上行風(fēng)險確實下降，就業(yè)的下行風(fēng)險增加了，因為我們一直保持耐心，在通脹下降的同時，控制通脹。我認(rèn)為我們現(xiàn)在處于非常有利的位置，可以管理我們兩個使命各自面臨的風(fēng)險。

And what do you expect to learn between now and November that will help inform the scale of the cut of the next meeting?

追問：您期望從現(xiàn)在到 11 月之間了解到哪些信息，以協(xié)助確定下次會議的降息幅度？

You know, more data. The usual. Don’t look for anything else. We’ll see another labor report. We’ll see another jobs report. I think we get. We actually, we could to, we get a second jobs report on the day of the meeting. I think, no, no, on the Friday before the meeting. So and inflation data we’ll get, we’ll get all this data we’ll be watching. You know, it’s always a question of, look at the incoming data and ask, what are the implications of that data for the evolving outlook and the balance of risks? And then go through our process and think, what’s the right thing to do? Is policy where we want it to be, to foster the achievement of our goals over time. So that’s what it is, and that’s what we’ll be doing.

你知道，更多的數(shù)據(jù)。和往常一樣。不要再尋找其他東西了。我們將看到兩份勞動力報告，我們還將獲得通脹數(shù)據(jù)，即所有這些我們將關(guān)注的數(shù)據(jù)。你知道，這總是一個問題，看看傳入的數(shù)據(jù)，并問，這些數(shù)據(jù)對不斷變化的前景和風(fēng)險平衡有何影響？然后通過我們的流程思考，什么是正確的做法？政策是否符合我們的期望，是否有助于實現(xiàn)我們的目標(biāo)。所以這就是我們要做的。

問題 11：we’ve only been running a little above 100,000 jobs a month on payrolls last three months. Do you view that level of job creation as worrying or alarming, or would you be would you be content if we were to kind of stick at that level? And relatedly, one of the welcome trends over the last couple of years has been labor market steam coming out through job openings, falling rather than job losses. Do you think that trend has further to run? Or do you see risk that further labor market cooling will have to come through job losses?

過去三個月，我們每月新增就業(yè)崗位僅略高于 10 萬個。您認(rèn)為這種就業(yè)崗位增加水平令人擔(dān)憂或發(fā)出警報嗎？或者，如果我們一直保持這種水平，您會感到滿意嗎？與此相關(guān)的是，過去幾年中令人欣喜的趨勢之一是勞動力市場熱度通過職位空缺釋放出來，而不是職位減少。您認(rèn)為這種趨勢會持續(xù)下去嗎？或者，您是否認(rèn)為勞動力市場進(jìn)一步降溫的風(fēng)險將不得不通過職位減少來實現(xiàn)？

回答 11：

So on the job creation, it depends on the inflows, right? So if you’re having millions of people come into the labor force then, and you’re creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up. So it really depends on what’s the trend underlying the volatility of people coming into the country. We understand there’s been quite an influx across the borders, and that has actually been one of the things that’s allowed unemployment rate to rise as and the other thing is just the slower hiring rate, which is something we also watch carefully. So it does depend on what’s happening on the supply side and on the curve.

就業(yè)創(chuàng)造取決于人口流入就業(yè)市場，所以，如果有數(shù)百萬人進(jìn)入勞動力市場，而且只創(chuàng)造了 10 萬個就業(yè)崗位，那么失業(yè)率就會上升。所以，這實際上取決于流入該國的人口波動背后的趨勢。我們知道跨境移民流入量相當(dāng)大，這實際上是導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率上升的原因之一，另一個因素是招聘速度放緩，這也是我們密切關(guān)注的因素。所以，這確實取決于供應(yīng)方面和供需曲線的情況。

So we all felt on the committee, not all, but I think everyone on the committee felt that job openings were so elevated that they could fall a long way before you hit the part of the curve where job openings turned into higher unemployment, job loss. And yes, I mean, I think we are. It’s hard to know that. You can’t know these things with great precision, but certainly it appears that we’re very close to that point, if not at it so that further declines in job openings will translate more directly into into unemployment. But it’s been, it’s been a great ride down. I mean, we’ve seen a lot of of tightness come out of the labor market in that form without it resulting in lower employment.

因此，我認(rèn)為委員會的每個人都認(rèn)為，職位空缺數(shù)量如此之高，所以可以長時間下降直到傳導(dǎo)稱更高的失業(yè)率上升。很難知道何時達(dá)到這一點。你不可能非常準(zhǔn)確地知道這些事情，但可以肯定的是，我們非常接近那個點，甚至現(xiàn)在都可能就在這個點上了，那么職位空缺的進(jìn)一步減少將更直接地轉(zhuǎn)化為失業(yè)。但這是一個巨大的下降過程。我的意思是，我們已經(jīng)看到勞動力市場以這種形式緩解了很多緊張局面，但并沒有導(dǎo)致就業(yè)率下降。

問題 12：so we’ve heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to three and a half, maybe under 4% and there’s basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal fund rate as something we’re heading in that direction. Again. What’s the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm?

我們聽到一些猜測，稱聯(lián)邦基金利率可能會降至 3.5%，也許低于 4%，而基本上整整一代人都經(jīng)歷過零或接近零的聯(lián)邦基金利率，我們正朝著這個方向前進(jìn)。廉價貨幣 / 超低利率重新成為常態(tài)的可能性有多大？

回答 12：

So this is a question. You mean, after we get through all of this, it’s just great question that we just we can only speculate about. Intuitively, most many, many people anyway, would say we’re probably not going back to that era where there were trillions of dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, long term bonds trading at negative rates. And it looked like the neutral rate was might even be negative. So there was people were issuing debt, issuing debt at negative rates. It seems that’s so far away. Now, my own sense is that that we’re not going back to that, but you know, honestly, we’re going to find out. But you know, it feels, it feels to me and that the neutral rate is is probably significantly higher than it was back then. How high is it? I just don’t think we know it’s again, we only know it by its works.

我們只能對此進(jìn)行推測。直覺上，大多數(shù)人會說，我們可能不會回到那個時代，當(dāng)?shù)赜袛?shù)萬億美元的主權(quán)債券以負(fù)利率交易，長期債券以負(fù)利率交易，而且當(dāng)時看起來中性利率甚至可能為負(fù)。所以有人在以負(fù)利率發(fā)行債務(wù)。這似乎距離現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)很遙遠(yuǎn)了。我的感覺是我們不會回到那個時代，我感覺中性利率可能比當(dāng)時高得多。它有多高？我也不知道，只能通過它的工作來了解它。

One more, how do you respond to the criticism that will likely come that a deeper rate cut now before the election, has some political motivations.

追問：還有一個問題，您如何回應(yīng)可能出現(xiàn)的批評，即在選舉前大幅降息是出于某些政治動機(jī)？

Yeah, so, you know, this is my fourth presidential election at the at the Fed, and you know, it’s always the same. We’re always, we’re always going into this meeting in particular and asking, what’s the right thing to do for the people we serve. And we do that, and we make a decision as a group, and then we announce it, and it’s that’s always what it is. It’s never about anything else. Nothing else is discussed. And I would also point out that the things that we do really affect economic conditions for the most part with with a lag. So nonetheless, this is what we do. Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people, and if we get it right, this will benefit the American people significantly. So this really concentrates the mind, and it’s something we all take very, very seriously. We don’t put up any other filters. I think if you start doing that, I don’t know where you stop. And so we just want to do that.

這是我在美聯(lián)儲第四次經(jīng)歷美國總統(tǒng)大選，你知道，總是一樣。我們總是問自己，對我們服務(wù)的美國人民??來說，什么是正確的事情。我們這樣做，我們作為一個團(tuán)體做出決定，然后我們宣布它，它總是如此。它從不涉及其他任何事情。沒有其他討論。我還要指出的是，我們所做的事情確實在很大程度上影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況，而且存在滯后效果。所以盡管如此，這就是我們的工作。我們的工作是代表美國人民支持經(jīng)濟(jì)，如果我們做對了，這將極大地造福美國人民。所以這真的讓我們集中注意力，這是我們都非常非常重視的事情。我們沒有設(shè)置任何其他過濾器。否則如果你開始這樣做，我不知道你會在哪里停下來。

問題 13：My first question is,very simply, what message are you trying to send American consumers, the American people with this unusually large rate cut?

我的第一個問題很簡單：通過這次不同尋常的大幅降息，您想向美國消費者、美國人民傳達(dá)什么信息？

回答 13：

I would just say that, you know, the US economy is in a good place and and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically, the economy is growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time, and the labor market is is still in solid shape. So our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the US economy, and we’ll do that by returning rates from their high level, which has really been the purpose of which has been to get inflation under control. We’re going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time,

我只想說，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好，我們今天的決定旨在保持這種狀況。更具體地說，經(jīng)濟(jì)正在穩(wěn)步增長。隨著時間的推移，通脹正在下降接近我們 2% 的目標(biāo)，勞動力市場仍然狀況良好。所以我們的意圖實際上是保持我們目前看到的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁勢頭，我們將通過把利率從高位拉低來實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，保持利率高位的目的是控制通脹。我們將隨著時間推移將利率降至更正常的水平。

just a follow up to that, listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2% is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices.

追問：聽您談?wù)撏浡蚀蠓陆抵?2%，這實際上意味著美聯(lián)儲在對抗通脹和物價上漲方面取得了決定性的勝利嗎？

No, we’re not so inflation. You know what we say is we want inflation. The goal is to have inflation move down to 2% on a sustainable basis. And, you know, we’re not really, we’re close, but we’re not really at 2% and I think we’re going to want to see it be, you know, around 2% and close to 2% for some time, but we’re certainly not doing, we’re not we’re not saying mission accomplished or anything like that. But I have to say, though we’re encouraged by the progress that we have made.

不，我們不會那么擔(dān)心通脹。我們想要（一定程度的）通貨膨脹。目標(biāo)是讓通脹率可持續(xù)地降至 2%。但我們現(xiàn)在沒有真正達(dá)到 2%，可能會在一段時間內(nèi)接近 2%，所以我們不會說（抗擊通脹的）任務(wù)已經(jīng)完成了這種話。但我必須說，我們對所取得的進(jìn)展感到鼓舞。

問題 14：

我只是想知道委員會如何看待我們所看到的持續(xù)的住房通脹，您認(rèn)為住房通脹率這么高，整體通脹能回到 2% 目標(biāo)嗎？

回答 14：

Yeah, so housing inflation is the is the one piece that is kind of dragging a bit. If I can say we know that market rents are doing what we would want them to do, which is to be moving up at relatively low levels, but they’re not rolling over that the leases that are rolling over are not coming down as much, and OER is coming in high. So, you know, it’s been slower than we expected. I think we now understand that it’s going to take some time for those lower market rents to get into this. But, you know, the direction of travel is clear, and as long as market rents remain, you know, relatively low inflation over time that will show up just the time it’s taking now, several years, rather than just one or two cycles of of annual lease renewals. So that’s, I think we understand that now, I don’t think the outcome is in doubt again. As long as market rents remain under control, the outcome is not as in doubt. So I would say it’s the rest of the rest of the portfolio, of the elements that go into core, PCE, inflation or have behaved pretty well. You know, they’re all they all have some volatility. We will get down to 2% inflation, I believe, and I believe that ultimately, we’ll get what we need to get out of the housing services piece too, some of your colleagues have experienced concern.

是的，住房通脹是一個有點拖累的因素。不過現(xiàn)在市場租金正在做我們希望它們做的事情，即在相對較低的水平增長，但是續(xù)約房屋的租金并沒有下降那么多，而 OER 卻很高。所以，住房通脹降溫的速度比我們預(yù)期要慢。我認(rèn)為我們現(xiàn)在明白，那些較低的市場租金需要一段時間才能發(fā)揮作用。但是，前進(jìn)的方向是明確的，只要市場租金保持相對較低的通脹，隨著時間推移，拉低通脹的效果就會顯現(xiàn)出來，這需要幾年，而不僅僅是一兩個年度租約續(xù)簽周期。所以，我不會因此質(zhì)疑通脹降溫。只要市場租金保持受控，結(jié)果就不會有疑問，另外，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的其他部分，包括核心 PCE 通脹等表現(xiàn)都相當(dāng)不錯。你知道，它們都有一定的波動性。我相信，我們的通脹率會降到 2%，我相信，最終，我們也會從住房服務(wù)部分獲得所需的收益。

It’s hard to gain that out. The housing market is in part frozen because of lock in with low rates. People don’t want to sell their homes, so because they have a very low mortgage to be quite expensive to refinance. As rates come down, people will start to move more, and that’s probably beginning to happen already. But remember, when that happens, you’ve got a you’ve got a seller, but you’ve also got a new buyer, in many cases. So it’s not, you know, obvious how much additional demand that would make me the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing. And so it’s going to be challenging. It’s hard to find to zone lots that are in places where people want to live. It’s all of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult. And you know, where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can can really fix, but I think as we normalize rates, you’ll see the housing market normalize. And I mean ultimately, by getting inflation broadly down and getting those rates normalized and getting the housing housing cycle normalized, that’s the best thing we can do for householders. And then the supply question will have to be dealt with by the market and also by government.

甚至，你知道，這種情況發(fā)生的可能性有多大？你會如何應(yīng)對房地產(chǎn)市場？很難知道。房地產(chǎn)市場（的供應(yīng)量）在一定程度上被之前人們鎖定的低利率所凍結(jié)。人們不想賣掉他們的房子，因為他們的抵押貸款利率很低，而再融資的成本相當(dāng)高。隨著利率下降，人們將開始更多地搬家，這可能已經(jīng)開始發(fā)生了。但請記住，當(dāng)這種情況發(fā)生時，你有一個賣家，但在很多情況下，你也會有一個新買家。所以，你知道，有多少額外的需求會讓我感到不明顯。住房的真正問題是，我們已經(jīng)擁有并將繼續(xù)擁有不足的住房供應(yīng)。所以這將是一個挑戰(zhàn)。很難找到人們想住的地方的分區(qū)地塊。住房的所有方面都越來越困難。你知道，我們要從哪里獲得供應(yīng)？這不是美聯(lián)儲能夠真正解決的問題，但我認(rèn)為隨著利率正?；?，你會看到房地產(chǎn)市場正常化。我的意思是，最終，通過降低通貨膨脹率、使利率正?；⑹棺》恐芷谡；@是我們能為家庭做的最好的事情。然后，供應(yīng)問題必須由市場和政府來解決。

問題 15：Just following up on some of the labor market talk earlier. You know, monetary policy operates with long and variable lags, and I’m wondering how much you see being able to keep the unemployment rate from rate right raising too much comes from the fact that you’re starting to act now, and that’s going to give people more room to run, versus just the labor market is strong. And then also, if I could following up on next question, do you see today’s 50 basis point move as partially a response to the fact that you didn’t cut in July, and that sort of gets you to the same place.

貨幣政策的運(yùn)作具有長期和可變的滯后性，我想知道你認(rèn)為能夠阻止失業(yè)率上升太多的程度有多大，這要歸功于你現(xiàn)在開始采取行動，這將給人們更多的回旋余地，而不是僅僅因為勞動力市場強(qiáng)勁。然后，如果我可以跟進(jìn)下一個問題，你是否認(rèn)為今天降息 50 個基點是對你在 7 月沒有降息這一事實的回應(yīng)和補(bǔ)償？

回答 15：

So you’re right about lags, but I would just point to the overall economy. You have an economy that is growing at a at a solid pace. If you look at forecasters or talk to companies, they’ll say that they think 2025 should be a good year too. So there’s no sense in the US economy. Basically fine, if you talk to market participants. I mean, I mean, you know, business people who are actually out there doing business. So I think, you know, I think we, I think our move is timely. I do. And as I said, you can, you can see our, our our 50 basis point move as as a commitment to make sure that we don’t fall behind. So you’re really asking about your second question. You’re asking about July. And I guess if you, if you ask, you know, if we gotten the July report before the meeting, would we have cut we might well of we didn’t make that decision, but you know that we might well have, I think that’s not, you know, that doesn’t really answer the question that we ask ourselves, which is, let’s look, you know, when at this meeting, we’re looking back to the July employment report, the August employment report, the two CPI reports, one of which came, of course, during blackout, and all the other things that I mentioned, we’re looking at all of those things and we’re asking ourselves, what’s the right what’s our what’s the policy stance we need to move to? We knew it’s clear that we clearly, literally everyone on the committee agreed that it’s time to move. It’s just how big, how fast you go, and what do you think about the pass forward? So this decision we made today had broad support on the committee, and I’ve discussed the path ahead. Elizabeth,

你對滯后的看法是對的，但我只想指出整體經(jīng)濟(jì)。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正在穩(wěn)步增長。如果你看看預(yù)測者或與公司交談，他們會說他們認(rèn)為 2025 年也應(yīng)該是好年頭。所以美國經(jīng)濟(jì)基本上沒問題。我認(rèn)為我們的舉措是及時的。你可以把我們的 50 個基點調(diào)整看作是一種承諾，以確保我們不會落后。如果在 7 月份 FOMC 會議前拿到當(dāng)月非農(nóng)數(shù)據(jù)，我們當(dāng)時是否會降息呢，可能會，但是我認(rèn)為這并沒有真正回答我們問自己的問題，那就是，讓我們看看，在這次會議上，我們回顧了 7 月份的就業(yè)報告、8 月份的就業(yè)報告、兩份 CPI 報告，其中一份是在靜默期內(nèi)發(fā)布的，以及我提到的所有其他事情，我們正在研究所有這些事情，我們在問自己，什么是正確的，我們需要采取什么樣的政策立場？我們知道，很明顯，委員會中的每個人都同意是時候采取行動了。只是規(guī)模有多大，速度有多快，你對未來利率路徑有什么看法？所以我們今天做出的這個決定得到了委員會的廣泛支持，我已經(jīng)討論了未來的道路。

問題 16：mortgage rates have already been dropping in anticipation of this announcement. How much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year?

按揭抵押貸款利率已經(jīng)在預(yù)期降息時就下降了。預(yù)計明年這些利率還會下降多少？

回答 16：

Very hard for me to say that’s from our standpoint. I can, I can’t really speak the mortgage rates. I will say, you know, that will depend on on how the economy evolves. Our our intention, though, is we think that our policy was appropriately restrictive. We think that it’s time to begin the process of recalibrating it to a level that’s more neutral, rather than restricted. We expect that process to take some time, as you can see in the projections that we released today, and as if things work out according to that forecast, other rates in the economy will come down as well. However, the rate at which those things happen will really depend on how the economy performs. We can’t see, we can’t look a year ahead and know what the economy is to be doing.

從我們的角度來看，我很難說。我不能真正談?wù)摰盅嘿J款利率。我會說，這取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)如何發(fā)展。但我們的意圖是，我們認(rèn)為我們的政策是適當(dāng)?shù)挠邢拗菩?。我們認(rèn)為是時候開始將其重新調(diào)整到更中性而不是維持限制性的水平了。我們預(yù)計這個過程需要一些時間，正如你在我們今天發(fā)布的預(yù)測中所看到的，如果事情按照預(yù)測發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟(jì)中的其他利率也會下降。然而，這些事情發(fā)生的速度實際上取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)。我們無法看到，我們無法展望一年后的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況。

What’s your message to households who are frustrated that home prices have still stayed so high as rates have been high? What do you say to those households?

追問：對于那些因為利率居高不下而房價居高不下的家庭，您有什么話要說？

Well, I can what I can say to the public is that we had the highest we had a burst of inflation.Many other countries around the world had had a similar burst of inflation. And when that happens, part of the answer is that we raise interest rates in order to cool the economy off in order to reduce inflationary pressures. It’s not something that people experience as pleasant, but at the end, what you get is low inflation restored. Price stability, restored. And a good definition of price stability is that people in their daily decisions, they’re not thinking about inflation anymore. That’s where everyone wants to be, is back to what’s inflation, you know, just keep it low, keep it stable. We’re restoring that. So what we’re going through now, really, it restores it will benefit people over a long period of time. Price stability benefits everybody over a long period of time, just by virtue of the fact that they don’t have to deal with inflation. So that’s what’s been going on. And I think we’ve made real progress. I completely we don’t tell people how to think about the economy, of course, and of course, people are experiencing high prices, as opposed to high inflation, and we understand that’s painful.

我可以告訴公眾的是，我們經(jīng)歷了最高的通貨膨脹，世界上許多其他國家也經(jīng)歷過類似的通貨膨脹。當(dāng)這種情況發(fā)生時，部分解決辦法是我們提高利率，以便冷卻經(jīng)濟(jì)，從而減少通脹壓力。這不是人們會感到愉快的事情，但最終，我們得到的是恢復(fù)低通脹?；謴?fù)價格穩(wěn)定。價格穩(wěn)定的一個好定義是，人們在日常決策中不再考慮通貨膨脹。這就是每個人都希望的，即保持通脹在低位和穩(wěn)定。我們正在恢復(fù)這種狀態(tài)。所以我們現(xiàn)在正在經(jīng)歷的，真的，恢復(fù)這種狀態(tài)將在很長一段時間內(nèi)使人們受益。價格穩(wěn)定在很長一段時間內(nèi)使每個人都受益，因為他們不必應(yīng)對通貨膨脹。這就是正在發(fā)生的事情。我認(rèn)為我們已經(jīng)取得了真正的進(jìn)步。我完全不會告訴人們應(yīng)該如何看待經(jīng)濟(jì)，當(dāng)然，人們正在經(jīng)歷高物價，而不是高通脹，我們理解這是痛苦的。

問題 17：I was wondering if you could go through you said just at the beginning that coming into the blackout, there was like an open thought of 25 or 50. You know, the fact that we’re either 25 or 50, I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President John Williams, that they were, they were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day. I mean, I sort of want to ask a seven part question about this. But I mean, could you talk, would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in, like, low odds of a 50 point move, like they were last Wednesday. You know, after the CPI number came out, there’s a really small probability of a 50 point cut. Does it play playing your consideration at all.

美聯(lián)儲官員剛進(jìn)入公開講話的靜默期時，人們對于降息 25 個基點還是 50 個基點持開放態(tài)度。理事沃勒和紐約聯(lián)儲主席威廉姆斯的講話也說漸進(jìn)式降息會占上風(fēng)。如果市場定價的是不太可能降息 50 個基點，您這次還會大幅降息嗎？市場的定價押注是否影響到美聯(lián)儲的決策？

回答 17：

Thank you. We’re always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time. That’s what we’ll do, and that’s what we did today.

我們總是會盡力做我們認(rèn)為對當(dāng)時的經(jīng)濟(jì)有利的事情。這就是我們要做的，也是我們今天所做的。

問題 18：you’ve mentioned how closely you’re watching the labor market, but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions. Does that put your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate? And given the SEP projection of 4.4 basically being the peak in the cycle, would going above that be the kind of thing that would trigger another 50 basis point cut.

您提到過您密切關(guān)注勞動力市場，但您也指出，由于遭遇大幅下修，最近就業(yè)人數(shù)的可靠性有所下降。這是否意味著您的注意力主要集中在失業(yè)率上？鑒于 SEP 預(yù)測的 4.4% 基本上是周期中的失業(yè)率峰值，超過這一水平是否會引發(fā)另一次 50 個基點的大幅降息？

回答 18：

So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data, including the payroll numbers. We’re not discarding those. I mean, we’ll certainly look at those, but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the Q, C, E, W adjustment, which you referred to. There isn’t a bright line, you know, it will be the light that the unemployment rate’s very important, of course, but there isn’t a single statistic or a single bright line over which that thing that might move, that would dictate one thing or another. We’ll look at each meeting, we’ll look at all the data on inflation, economic activity and the labor market, and we’ll make decisions about is our policy stance where it needs to be to, you know, to foster over the medium term, our mandate goals. Yeah, so I can’t, I can’t say we, we have a bright line in mind.

我們將繼續(xù)關(guān)注廣泛的勞動力市場數(shù)據(jù)，包括非農(nóng)就業(yè)。我們不會放棄這些數(shù)據(jù)。我的意思是，我們肯定會關(guān)注這些數(shù)據(jù)，但我們在心理上會傾向于根據(jù)您提到的 QCEW 調(diào)整來調(diào)整它們。沒有一條明確的界線，當(dāng)然，失業(yè)率非常重要，但沒有一個統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)或一條明確的界線可以決定這件事或那件事。我們會在每次會議上，查看有關(guān)通貨膨脹、經(jīng)濟(jì)活動和勞動力市場的所有數(shù)據(jù)，并決定我們的政策立場，以便在中期內(nèi)促進(jìn)我們的授權(quán)使命。所以我不能說我們心中有一條明確的界線。

問題 19：I know that you discussed earlier how the Fed does whatever the right thing is and nothing else factors in. But in general, can you talk about whether or not you believe a sitting US president should have a say in fed decisions on interest rates? Because that’s something that former President Trump, who obviously points of view, has previously, suggested, and I know the Fed is designed to be independent, but why can you tell the public why you view that so important?

我知道您之前討論過美聯(lián)儲會做正確的事情，其他因素都不考慮。但總的來說，您能否談?wù)勀欠裾J(rèn)為現(xiàn)任美國總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該對美聯(lián)儲的利率決策有發(fā)言權(quán)？因為這是前總統(tǒng)特朗普之前提出的，他顯然有自己的觀點，我知道美聯(lián)儲的設(shè)計初衷是獨立的，但您為什么能告訴公眾您認(rèn)為這一點如此重要呢？

回答 19：

Sure, so countries that are democracies around the world, countries that are sort of like the United States, all have what are called independent central banks. And the reason is that that people have found, over time, that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that that favors, maybe people who are in office as opposed to people who are not in office. So that that’s, that’s the idea, is that, you know, I think the data are clear that countries that have independent central banks, they get lower inflation. And so we’re, you know, we’re not, we do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing. It’s just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans, and that’s how the other central banks are set up to it. It’s a good institutional arrangement which has been good for the public, and I hope and strongly, strongly believe that it will. You know, continue.

當(dāng)然，像美國這樣的民主國家都有所謂的獨立央行。原因是，隨著時間推移，人們發(fā)現(xiàn)，將央行與政治當(dāng)局的直接控制隔離開來，可以避免制定僅僅有利于在位者的貨幣政策。這就是我們的想法，我認(rèn)為數(shù)據(jù)清楚地表明，擁有獨立央行的國家通脹率較低。所以我們的工作是為了服務(wù)所有美國人。我們不為任何政客、任何政治人物、任何事業(yè)、任何議題服務(wù)，什么都不為。我們只是為所有美國人實現(xiàn)最大化就業(yè)和價格穩(wěn)定，其他央行就是這樣建立的。這是一個對公眾有利的良好制度安排，我希望并堅信它會繼續(xù)下去。

問題 20：a couple regulatory developments in the past week that I want to ask you about. First last week, Vice Chair for supervision, Michael Barr outlined his views for the changes to the Basel three end game. I’m wondering if you are in line with him on those changes should be if those have support the board in a broad way that you’re looking for, and if you think the other agencies are also fully on board with that approach

我想問您關(guān)于過去一周的幾個監(jiān)管發(fā)展。首先，上周美聯(lián)儲負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管的副主席 Michael Barr 概述了他對巴塞爾協(xié)議三監(jiān)管規(guī)則變更的看法。我想知道您是否同意他的觀點，是否其他機(jī)構(gòu)也完全支持這種方法？

回答 20：

So the answer to your question is that, yes, those those changes were negotiated between the agencies with my support and with my involvement, with the idea that we were going to re propose, we propose the changes that we, that Vice Chair Barr talked about, and then take comment on them. So yes, that that is, you know, that’s happening with my support. That’s not a final proposal, though. You understand, we’re putting them out for comment. We’re going to take comment and make appropriate changes that we don’t have a, we don’t have a calendar date for that. And as for the other agencies, you know, the idea is that we’re all moving together. We’re not moving separately. So that I don’t, I don’t know exactly where that is, but the idea is that we will move as a group to put this again out for comment, and then, you know, it’ll, it’ll come the comments will come back 60 days later, and we’ll dive into them, and we’ll try to bring this to a conclusion sometime in the first half of next year.

對你問題的回答是「是的」，這些變化是在我支持和參與下由各機(jī)構(gòu)協(xié)商達(dá)成的，我們的想法是重新提出，我們提出巴爾副主席談到的變化，然后征求意見。所以是的，那是在我的支持下發(fā)生的。但這不是最終提案。你知道，我們正在征求意見。我們將征求意見并做出適當(dāng)?shù)母淖儯覀儧]有具體的日期。至于其他機(jī)構(gòu)，你知道，我們的想法是我們都一起行動。我們不會分開行動。所以我不知道具體在哪里，但我們的想法是，我們將作為一個團(tuán)隊再次將這個問題提出來征求意見，然后，你知道，60 天后我們會收到評論，我們會深入研究它們，并嘗試在明年上半年的某個時候得出結(jié)論。

Then yesterday, there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators. What does that have to do to align itself on merger?

追問：昨天，其他銀行監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也敲定了合并改革方案。這對合并有什么影響？

You know, I would, I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr. It’s a good question, but I don’t have that today. Thanks Jennifer for the last question.

你知道，我會把這個問題轉(zhuǎn)交給巴爾副主席。這是個好問題，但我今天沒有答案。

問題 21：you said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration, strength in the labor market that can be maintained in the context of moderate growth, even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced, given what you’ve said. Though today, I’m curious, are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation? Are they not roughly balanced?

您之前說過，今天的決定反映了經(jīng)過適當(dāng)調(diào)整后，勞動力市場在溫和增長的背景下仍能保持強(qiáng)勁，盡管政策聲明中說，您認(rèn)為通脹和就業(yè)增長的風(fēng)險大致平衡，不過我很好奇，您是否更擔(dān)心就業(yè)市場和增長而不是通脹？它們不是大致平衡的嗎？

回答 21：

No, I think, I think, and we think they are now roughly balanced. So if you go back for a long time, the risks were on inflation. We had historically tight labor market, historically tight. There was a severe labor shortage, so very, very hot labor market, and we had inflation way above target. So you know that said to us, concentrate on inflation. Concentrate on inflation. And we did for a while, and we and we kept at that, that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation. Part of bringing down inflation, though, is is cooling off the economy, and a little bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market, in part because of of our activity. So what that tells you is it’s time to change our stance. So we did that. The sense of the change in the stance is that we’re recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will be more neutral. And today was we, I think we made a good, strong start on that. I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, you know, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here,

不，我認(rèn)為，而且我們認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在它們大致平衡了。所以如果你回顧很長一段時間，風(fēng)險在于通貨膨脹過高。我們的勞動力市場處于歷史性緊張時期。勞動力嚴(yán)重短缺，因此勞動力市場非常非?；鸨?，而且通貨膨脹率遠(yuǎn)高于目標(biāo)。所以你知道，這告訴我們，要集中精力應(yīng)對通貨膨脹。我們確實這樣做了一段時間，并且我們一直堅持這樣做，14 個月前我們制定的立場是專注于降低通貨膨脹。然而，降低通貨膨脹的一部分是冷卻經(jīng)濟(jì)，以及稍微冷卻勞動力市場?，F(xiàn)在勞動力市場冷卻了，部分原因是我們的活動。所以這告訴你是時候改變我們的立場了。所以我們這樣做了。立場改變的意義在于，我們正在隨著時間的推移重新調(diào)整我們的政策，使其立場更加中立。而今天，我認(rèn)為我們在這方面取得了良好的開端。我認(rèn)為這是正確的決定，我認(rèn)為這應(yīng)該發(fā)出一個信號，表明我們致力于達(dá)成一個好的結(jié)果。

to a shock now that could tip it into recession?

追問：大幅降息是否會令市場震驚并覺得經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退臨近呢？

I don’t think so. I don’t there’s as I look, well, let me look at it this way. I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn is elevated. I Okay I don’t see that, you see you see growth at a solid rate. You see inflation coming down and you see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels. It’s so, so I don’t really see that now.

我不這么認(rèn)為。目前，我沒有看到任何跡象表明經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性增加。你看到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率穩(wěn)定。你看到通貨膨脹率下降，你看到勞動力市場仍然處于非常穩(wěn)定的水平。事實就是如此，所以我現(xiàn)在真的看不到這一點。

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